PDP candidate leads in Edo 2024 gubernatorial election poll
The race for the Edo State governorship election is heating up, with the latest poll from the Africa Polling Institute (API) revealing a significant lead for Mr. Asue Ighodalo, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, the outcome remains uncertain, as a large percentage of voters are still undecided.
The API’s Edo State 2024 Pre-Election poll, conducted from August 12th to 16th, places Ighodalo ahead with 43% of the vote, a 23-point lead over his closest rival, Mr. Monday Okpebholo of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who garnered 20%. The Labour Party’s candidate, Mr. Olumide Akpata, trails with 9% support.
Despite Ighodalo’s lead, the poll highlights a crucial factor that could sway the election – the 28% of voters who remain undecided. This undecided bloc could potentially shift the balance in favor of any of the leading candidates, making the race far from a foregone conclusion.
The poll also reveals that 94% of respondents are registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), with 83% indicating that they have given considerable thought to the upcoming election.
However, confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to conduct a credible election remains mixed. According to the poll, 47% of respondents have little or no confidence in INEC’s ability to ensure a free and fair election, while 34% have some confidence, and 19% express complete confidence.
When asked which political party stands the best chance of winning, 42% of respondents favored the PDP, followed by 22% who chose the APC, and 6% who believed the Labour Party has the best shot.
A significant 82% of respondents confirmed they are sure to vote in the election, with 9% stating they will not vote, and 8% remaining unsure.
The poll also explored the factors influencing voter decisions. The top considerations include the candidate’s competence (57%), personality (42%), experience and track record (36%), political party (34%), and party manifesto or policy stance (16%).
When respondents were asked which candidate best met these criteria, 43% chose Ighodalo, 21% favored Okpebholo, and 7% opted for Akpata. However, a notable 29% were uncertain.
The API’s findings indicate that the Edo 2024 Governorship Election is shaping up to be a two-horse race between the PDP and APC. The final outcome will likely hinge on which candidate can win over the undecided voters and solidify their support base in the coming weeks.
The API conducted this state-wide public opinion poll via telephone interviews with 2,687 randomly selected voters across Edo State’s 18 Local Government Areas. The interviews, conducted in five major languages spoken in the state, took place from August 12th to 16th, 2024. The poll results have a margin of error of ±5% and a confidence level of 95%.
The Africa Polling Institute (API) is an independent, non-profit research organization that conducts opinion polls and surveys on democracy, governance, economic conditions, and public life in sub-Saharan Africa. API aims to support better public policy, practice, and advocacy through its research efforts.
